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A groundbreaking new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has revealed the true scale of artificial intelligence’s current capability in the US job market, finding that AI can technically perform work equivalent to 11.7% of the US workforce, translating to a staggering $1.2 trillion in annual wages across major sectors like finance, healthcare, and professional services.
The research leverages a sophisticated digital modeling tool called the Iceberg Index, which maps the specific tasks and skills most vulnerable to automation down to the individual zip code level. Crucially, the researchers emphasize this tool is not a prediction of mass layoffs, but a vital guide for policymakers and business leaders to proactively plan retraining programs and infrastructure investments, ensuring the workforce is prepared for the rapid, widespread changes AI is already bringing.
MIT Study: AI Impact on US Jobs
A recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) reveals that AI is already capable of replacing 11.7% of US workers, impacting $1.2 trillion in wages. The research uses a new tool called the Iceberg Index, developed by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The index simulates how 151 million US workers interact and how AI and government policies might affect them.
The Iceberg Index Explained
The Iceberg Index creates a digital twin of the US labor market, mapping over 32,000 skills across 923 occupations in 3,000 counties. It identifies where AI can already perform these skills, showing job disruption hotspots at the state and zip code level. The index helps policymakers and business leaders identify at-risk jobs, prioritize training and infrastructure investments, and test interventions before making large-scale commitments.
Key Findings
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The visible part of job losses in tech, computing, and IT accounts for just 2.2% of total wage exposure, or about $211 billion.
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The deeper, less visible exposure is much larger, with routine functions in human resources, logistics, finance, and office administration at risk.
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The index covers all 50 states, including inland and rural regions, highlighting the broad impact of AI on jobs.
Implications for Workers and Leaders
The study is not a prediction of job losses but a structured way for policymakers to explore different scenarios before committing resources. It helps leaders plan retraining and education initiatives, ensuring workers are prepared for changes in the job market.
What Lies Ahead
The Iceberg Index is being used by states like Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah to inform their AI workforce action plans. The tool enables policymakers to drill down to local detail, matching skills with the likelihood of automation and assessing the impact on employment and GDP.